BOC pound or new lows, hard to break the historical low of $1.05 运城狼帮

BOC: pounds or low revisited is difficult to break the $1.05 record low of U.S. stock market center: exclusive national industry sector stocks, premarket after hours, ETF, real-time quotes Sina warrants stocks in Beijing on the evening of 7 Reuters Friday pound fell to 31 year low moment, BOC Hongkong chief economist E Zhihuan said that if the dispute upgrade Britain and the European Union, does not rule out future exchange rate will try again low, but fell to $1.05 in 1985 is unlikely to historic lows. She also believes that if the devaluation of the pound can only be limited to its own exchange rate changes, did not affect the euro, the U.S. dollar exchange rate continued unilateral appreciation of the opportunity is not high, the pressure on the renminbi and other currencies can be controlled. The following comments: this morning, the pound against the dollar exchange rate fell to $1.1841 since 1985 lows, then quickly rebounded to around $1.24, compared with the previous day and still closed on Friday fell by about 1.5% and 4.3%, since this year the pound against the dollar fell 115.7%. The market is still divided on this view, refers to the transaction error caused by the rapid increase in program trading, dragged down the exchange rate in a short period of time. The author believes that under the background of the rising dollar interest rate expectations, the market has a strong reaction to the eventual disillusionment of britain. On Sunday, British Prime Minister Wen Cuishan interviewed by the media pointed out that Britain will be in March next year before the formal end of 50 through the Treaty of Lisbon to the European Union put off Europe, which is the fastest in April 2019 Britain will officially leave the eu. Financial markets are once again worried that the euro will hit the economy of the UK and the European Union, especially whether the UK’s financial sector will continue to have a single pass, which adds to the pressure on Sterling depreciation. First, hard to break Europe may have a comprehensive impact. Although the short-term economic performance is not obvious blow, but the British government will be held next year before the end of March through the Treaty of Lisbon in 50 to the European Union formally from Europe, and launched a two-year negotiations with the EU, to determine the future both in economic and political relations among the New England, whether in the maintenance of a single market access, financial in a single pass, immigration and pay a fee to the EU will become the focus of investment will directly affect the local enterprises and employees in asset markets and consumer confidence, and will also be affected, will bring the conflict to the EU and the UK economy. In addition, next year in France, Germany and Holland will hold a general election, the British and the continued weakness in Europe, refugees and economic or will bring support for suspected Optima, Europe will appear by the suspected Optima led government is still unknown, increased political risk, the financial market will inevitably lead to renewed wave lan. Britain’s single pass will bear the brunt of the financial crisis. Recently, the market rumors that the financial industry is not the first consideration of the British government, but also deepened the market for hard to worry about Europe, and worried that the financial industry will lose the advantages of a single pass. Although the EU provisions pointed out that if the European Economic Area countries have the same level with the EU legislation in different countries, they can also provide some financial services within the EU, but the relevant provisions did not cover the entire financial industry, such as retail banks have not been included, i.e. 3 of Britain’s financial institutions

中银:英镑或再探新低 难破1.05美元历史低位 美股行情中心:独家提供全美股行业板块、盘前盘后、ETF、权证实时行情   新浪美股 北京时间7日晚路透讯 英镑周五瞬间大跌至31年低点,中银香港首席经济学家鄂志寰称,若英国与欧盟的争拗升级,不排除未来英镑汇率会再试新低,惟跌至1985年1.05美元历史低位的机会不大。   她还认为,倘若英镑贬值能仅限于其本身汇率的变化,未影响到欧元的话,美元汇率出现持续大幅单边升值的机会不高,对人民币等其他货币的压力料可受控。   以下为其评论全文:   今早英镑兑美元汇率一度跌至1.1841美元的1985年以来新低,随后快速反弹至1.24美元左右,仍分别较上日及上周五收市下跌约1.5%及4.3%,令今年以来英镑兑美元下跌115.7%。市场对此看法仍较分歧,有指是交易出错导致程式交易急增,拖累汇率在短时间内下跌。笔者分析认为是在美元加息预期上升背景下,市场对英国最终能软脱欧幻想破灭的强烈反应。上周日,英国首相文翠珊接受媒体访问指出,英国将于明年3月底前正式透过里斯本条约50条向欧盟提出脱欧,即最快英国将于2019年4月起便正式离开欧盟。金融市场再次忧虑脱欧将会打击英国和欧盟的经济,特别是英国金融业能否继续拥有单一通行证,令英镑汇率贬值压力再起。   一、硬脱欧可能产生综合冲击。   虽然英国短期的经济表现未有受到明显打击,但英国政府将于明年3月底前透过里斯本条约50条向欧盟提出正式脱欧,并与欧盟展开为期两年的谈判,以确定未来双方在经贸和政治上的新关系,当中英国能否在维持单一市场准入、金融业的单一通行证、移民问题及向欧盟缴交费用等将成为焦点,将直接影响当地企业投资和雇员的信心,资产市场和消费继而亦会受到影响,势将对欧盟和英国经济带来冲突。再者,明年法国、德国和荷兰均会举行大选,英国脱欧、难民和经济持续疲弱或会对疑欧派带来支持,欧洲会否出现由疑欧派主导的政府仍是未知之数,政治风险上升,难免导致 金融市场再起波澜。   英国金融业单一通行证将首当其冲。近日,市场传闻保障金融业并非英国政府的首要考虑,同样加深了市场对硬脱欧的忧虑,并担心金融业会失去单一通行证的优势。虽然欧盟有条文指出,若非欧洲经济区的国家有与欧盟相同程度的法例,他们亦可于欧盟内的不同国家提供一些金融服务,但有关条文并未覆盖整个金融业,如零售银行未有被包括在内,即英国的金融机构要向欧盟申请牌照才能在当地设立分支机构,开展零售银行业务,而分销基金等亦受限,令逾5000家金融机构或会受到影响,将对英国至关重要的金融业带来显著冲击。再者,虽然英国已放弃了于2020年财政平衡的目标,希望透过加大开支来刺激增长,但新任财长夏文达亦未有表示会跟随上任财长欧思邦提出进一步减税至15%的建议,故其财政政策宽松的力度是否足够抵销经济下行的压力仍有待观察,硬脱欧风险正在增加。   单一市场和移民问题两难选择加大市场风险。事实上,在与欧盟展开谈判时,英国政府可作出两个基本选择,即是单一市场优先,还是移民问题优先。以近月英国政府的态度来看,他们认为公投清楚反映人民的意愿是控制移民,并指希望未来能把每年净移民流入的数目减至几万人,且英国政府亦无意以挪威等欧洲经济区成员进入单一市场的方式作为蓝本,故笔者认为英国政府会优先考虑移民问题,而非单一市场。即在与欧盟谈判时,他们更多会坚持在达成控制移民于一定数目的前提下,与欧盟商讨可以在贸易和投资方面达到什么程度的自由化水平,当中或有需要放弃一些单一市场的好处,对两地之间贸易和投资难免会造成较大程度的打击,但具体的情况仍要有更多内容才能作出评估。   二、美国加息预期再起,放大市场对脱欧变局的反应程度。   近日,金融市场再次开始为美国于12月份加息一次作出准备,带动美元汇率上升,金价和其他外币(包括英镑)一同受压。另外,目前全球金融市场(无论是股市或债市)表现较佳主要是受到央行的政策支持,而非经济好和企业盈利佳的结果,故金融市场的表现对央行的政策极为敏感。因此,市场对央行的政策是否已经走到极限,以及主要央行是否考虑调整货币政策极为关注。如近日有指英国首相文翠珊在保守党会议上表示,她反对英伦银行低息和量宽等政策,以及有传欧洲央行将于明年3月起逐步减少买债,均令金融市场风险胃纳有所降低,亦推动了美元上升,其他外币(包括英镑)则出现下跌。   脱欧公投以来,英国短期的经济数据和金融市场表现仍较稳定。6月23日公投脱欧至今超过3个月,金融市场仅于公投后数天出现了短暂波动,随后便在预期英国和其他主要央行将大幅宽松货币政策下而显著回升,美国和英国股市更曾创出新高纪录。英镑汇率亦由脱欧消息公布后兑1.28美元的低位回升,并稳定于1.31至1.33美元的区间,较年初大约低10%左右。同一情况亦出现于经济数据上,经过7月份的短暂下跌后,8、9月份的经济数据亦回复稳定,无论是制造业和非制造业、消费信心以至零售和工业生产等表现均显示英国经济仅略为放慢,而非如脱欧前预期会陷入衰退。经济和金融市场未有明显打击,相信是与英国政府权力有序交替,英伦银行重启减息及宽松货币政策,加上金融市场表现理性,以及英镑汇率显著贬值等,部份纾缓了脱欧所带来的下行压力。   三、英镑汇率中期前景将维持偏弱。   首先,未来英国与欧盟将就新的经贸协议谈判,两地政府将出现不同程度的博奕和争拗,料将继续困扰英镑汇率的表现,预期英镑汇率将继续处于1.25美元左右的偏弱水平。若英国与欧盟争拗升级,则不排除英镑汇率会再试新低,惟跌至1985年1.05美元低位的机会不大。   其次,近日市场对美国加息预期再起,美元走势大致偏强,但英镑再次大幅贬值却未有显著拖累欧元等货币的表现。以欧元和英镑于美元指数分别占57.6%及11.9%,倘若英镑贬值能仅限于其本身汇率的变化,未有影响到欧元的话,美元汇率出现持续大幅单边升值的机会不高,对人民币等其他货币的压力料可受控。(完) 责任编辑:李兀 SF053相关的主题文章: